Research

Click on the arrows to access the abstracts.

Please note: when citing to my work please use both my last names, either as Villamizar Chaparro or Villamizar-Chaparro.

Peer Reviewed Journal Articles

• [4] The Market in Smugglers: Survey Experimental Evidence on the Choice of Coyotes in Guatemala.with Diego Romero and Erik Wibbels [Pre-analysis plan] Conditionally Accepted at Comparative Political Studies

  _{Abstract: Illicit migration is big business, involving millions of migrants each year, many of whom hire human smugglers to facilitate perilous journeys. Yet little is known about this illicit market or how potential migrants choose whom to hire. Facing high costs and uncertain prospects of success, future migrants must make complex, high-stakes decisions when selecting a smuggler. In this paper, we provide descriptive evidence on the market for coyotes (human smugglers in Latin America) and experimental evidence on the factors shaping hiring preferences. Using a forced-choice conjoint experiment, we isolate the effects of referrals, reputation, reliability, safety, and price. Our evidence draws on three original sources: a panel survey of deportees from the U.S. to Guatemala, a household survey, and in-depth interviews. We find that referrals and reputations for safe, successful journeys are central, while price has little influence—helping explain why policies that raise migration costs often fail to deter irregular migration.}
  

• [3] Group Consciousness and District Selection: Evidence from the Colombian Congress’ Black Ethnic District with Cristina Echeverri-Pineda. (2025) Political Behavior [Link to paper]

  _{Abstract: How does group consciousness affect the preferences for district selection? In this paper, we investigate if individuals that have a stronger group consciousness measured as historical discrimination, existences of linked fate, and inequalities in the treatment of different racial groups affect district choice. Using a multi-method design, using semi-structured interviews and a conjoint experiment in a sample of Afro-Colombians, we find evidence that group consciousness affects the preferences for ethnic districts over territorial ones. Our results also show that membership to ethnic organization or individuals episodes of discrimination do not change preferences for ethnic districts. These findings indicate that individuals with high levels of group consciousness tend to worry more about mechanisms ad institutions that can enhance the group’s political representation.}

  [Pre-analysis plan] [Replication Materials]

• [2] Extortion, Civic Action, and Political Participation among Guatemalan Deportees with Elaine K. Denny, David A. Dow and Gabriella Levy. (2024) British Journal of Political Science 54(1), 260–279.

  _{Abstract: How does extortion affect political and civic engagement? Extortion is both a form of victimization and a type of economic hardship, yet existing literature is inconclusive about how both phenomena affect public participation. We argue that extortion as an economic shock will increase grievances, thereby increasing engagement. In contrast, extortion as victimization will prompt fear of crime, thereby depressing engagement. Using novel survey data from migrants deported to Guatemala by the U.S. government, we leverage the quasi-random experience of extortion during migration to test this theory. We find that extortion has a strong positive effect on both civic action and protest after deportation. The results suggest that this effect is mediated partly by increased economic hardship. These findings demonstrate that extortion experienced while migrating has long term financial consequences for deportees which may ultimately shape their reintegration into their home countries.}

  [Link to paper] [Replication Materials]

• [1] Sick, Hungry, and Vulnerable: Federal Stimulus and Food Security on Marginalized Populations During the COVID‑19 Pandemic with Timothy R. McDade, Molly Jacobs, and Michelle Corea Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities

  _{Abstract: In addition to the threat of serious illness, COVID-19 and subsequent restrictions had devastating economic consequences for many US citizens. This study examines the evolution of food security over the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic testing whether the initial economic stimulus payment improved the nutritional well-being of vulnerable populations. We use data from Phase 1 of the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey among a nationally representative sample of adults and the 2017-2018 Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement. Using an ordered logistic regression, we assess differences in the incidence and severity of food security across demographic, income, geographic and employment status cohorts and assess the effects of the first economic stimulus payment. Our results show that marginalized groups faced greater food insecurity and had food-related outcomes worsen over time. Blacks, Hispanics, and individuals living in rural areas became less food secure as the pandemic progressed. However, receipt of a stimulus payment appears to have improved conditions. Rising food prices and persistent high unemployment have the potential to exacerbate food insecurity among marginalized and at-risk groups.}

  [Link to paper]

Book Chapters

• [3] Villamizar-Chaparro, M and Echeverri-Pineda, C (2022) Blank votes and black organizations: explaining participation in the Afro-Colombian ethnic districts. In En reconfiguración permanente: partidos y elecciones nacionales y subnacionales en Colombia 2018-2019, edited by Botero, F; Ortega Gómez, Viviana; Pino, Juan Federico and Wills, L. [In Spanish - Link to book here]
• [2] Hoyos, C and Villamizar Chaparro, M (2019) The Implementation of the Peace Accords in Congress: A legislative balance during 2017. In Excombatientes y acuerdo de paz con las FARC-EP en Colombia, edited by Rettberg, A, and McFee, E. [In Spanish - Link to book here].
• [1] Echeverri Pineda, C and Villamizar Chaparro, M (2018) Representation and Political Participation of the Afro-Colombian Population: 2014 Elections and Black Legislators. In Polarización y posconflicto las elecciones nacionales y locales en Colombia, 2014-2017, edited by Botero, F, García Sánchez, M and Wills-Otero, L. [In Spanish - Link to book here].

Under Review

• Migrant Risky Business: Politicians and vote buying in Colombia Under Review

  _{Abstract: The number of internal migrants in the developing world has been increasing due to climate change, violence, and economic development. How do these flows of migrants affect politicians’ use of vote-buying? Unlike their international counterparts, internal migrants still retain their right to vote and hence can participate in elections. This paper presents a theory analyzing a politician’s decision when allocating private benefits between migrants and natives. Using Colombia as a case study, this paper illustrates that politicians will distribute more private benefits to migrants when there are lower levels of political competition. This result is driven by the fact that migrants present a riskier investment for politicians. Results also show that low political turnout in high-migration areas is associated with less mobilization targeting. These findings complement the results from the lack of migrant integration into formal political settings as campaigns and candidacies by looking at informal distributional channels.}

• Ties that bind?: the influence of wartime social networks on ex-combatant reintegration with Juan F. Tellez Under Review [Pre-analysis plan]

  _{Abstract: During armed conflicts, combatants forge deep ties with peers and leaders that often persist post-war. There is a growing consensus that these ties are a negative influence on ex-combatants, facilitating a return to arms or pulling former fighters into organized crime. We present suggestive evidence that this view may be overly pessimistic. We collect rare survey and qualitative interview data from demobilized fighters going through an economic reintegration program in Colombia. We find no evidence that ex-combatants who are actively attempting reintegration are influenced by wartime ties and some evidence that they \textit{discount} information from former fighters. Our results speak to the potential for ex-combatants to vary in their personal investment in demobilization and how state policies can structure ex-combatant decision-making.}

• Asserting Development: Evidence on the Logic of Slum Evictions in Patna, India with Harlan Downs-Tepper and Emily K. Rains. R&R at Urban Affairs Review

  _{Abstract: Urban economic growth often entails transformation that displaces vulnerable residents. As developing countries rapidly urbanize, millions living in informal settlements face eviction each year, often without notice or alternative arrangements upon displacement. Yet strikingly little quantitative evidence exists on which communities are displaced in the name of modernization and why. This article examines evictions in Patna, Bihar, India, using five data sources: administrative surveys of slums, pre-eviction household surveys, post-eviction interviews with local informants, panel satellite imagery, and novel geospatial data on economic activity. We find that officials primarily targeted the poorest settlements located on the least economically valuable land. Four years later, these sites were rarely redeveloped. Evictions were ordered by higher-level officials, and local political ties did not prevent displacement. Our findings collectively support the logic that higher-level officials order evictions to assert their authority in a context of complex overlapping jurisdictions, rather than for economic development purposes.}

• Foreign Influence by Authoritarian Governments: Introducing New Data and Evidence with Jeremy Springman, Donald Moratz, Erik Wibbels, Serkant Adiguzel, Zung-Ru Lin, and Diego Romero. [Link to Working Paper]

  _{Abstract: Policymakers are increasingly concerned about the revival of superpower conflict. Increased competition among great powers has been especially evident in the exercise of foreign influence, where Russia and China have increased their efforts to influence less powerful nations. To date, the absence of quantitative data has limited systematic investigation of this resurgence of authoritarian influence activity. We introduce a new, country-month dataset tracking reports of influence by Russia and China in 62 aid-receiving countries from 2012 through 2024. We construct the data by applying large langauage models (LLMs) to an original corpus of more than 100 million news articles sourced from high-quality, domestic news sources and use it to describe trends in influence activity over time and across countries. Finally, we exploit the unique features of the data to test hypotheses about Russian influence activity in the months before the invasion of Ukraine. We document a dramatic increase in the use of diplomacy, economic power, and hard power before the invasion. In doing so, we show that this data is useful for both theory testing and foreign policy decision-making.}

• Beyond Participation Costs: Incentive Design and Political Interest with Mónica Pachón and Carolina Bernal. Working Paper [Pre-analysis plan]

  _{Abstract: Political participation among young adults remains persistently low, and existing scholarship often emphasizes reducing participation costs as a primary strategy for increasing engagement. This paper shifts attention to the structure of incentives embedded in political environments. We argue that incentive-based electoral forecasting environments can stimulate political interest by making political information instrumentally valuable. Using a 2×2 factorial experiment embedded in a university-based electoral forecasting competition with monetary stakes, we examine the effects of updating opportunities and participation costliness on political engagement. Allowing participants to revise their forecasts increases reported political interest and improves predictive accuracy. In contrast, subsidized participation does not enhance informational engagement but is associated with lower turnout, consistent with differences in psychological commitment. Updating does not increase self-reported news-checking frequency, suggesting that informational engagement may operate through channels other than deliberate news consumption. These findings refine theories of incentive-based engagement by distinguishing between informational incentives and psychological stake and highlight the importance of incentive design in shaping political interest.}

Working Papers

• European Ancestry and Affirmative Action: The Long-term Effects of Whitening Policies in Southern Brazil Working Paper

  _{Abstract: Historically, countries have used migration to populate empty regions or supply labor to nascent economies. But what are the long-term political effects of these policies on inter-group redistribution? Empirically, I focus on the case of Brazil during the age of Mass Migration (1880-1930) to understand how diverse local migration policies explain the contemporary geography of support for redistribution and affirmative action. During that earlier age, Brazil offered land and labor to attract European migrants to work in the growing coffee sector in the country’s South. Combining an original survey with archival and administrative data, I contend that places that gave land to migrants and people who descend from European migrants are less supportive of affirmative action policies for Blacks. The results also show that the proportion of winning White candidates in 2016 is larger in places with settlements. I argue that this effect results from the preservation and strengthening of racial and social hierarchies in Brazilian society that have been transmitted through generations.}

• Grassroots Guardians: How Collective Institutions Protect Public Goods with Marcelo Gonçalves and Subhrendu K. Pattanayak. [Link to Paper]

  _{Abstract: Climate change is a global emergency, requiring both technological and institutional interventions to mitigate its effects. Among the contributions of political science to climate action are institutional solutions that address collective action problems, such as collective property rights. Accordingly, collective titling became a prominent conservation strategy in recent decades. However, empirical evidence on its effectiveness remains inconclusive, with inconsistent findings often lacking clear the- oretical explanations. We bridge this gap by arguing that the impact of collective titling depends on the strength of intracommunity institutions – where communities with more cohesive institutions experience solider conservation outcomes, as suggested by the common-pool resource literature. We test this argument by analyzing the effects of collective titling programs on deforestation in Brazil. We find that while collective titling reduces degradation, its benefits are concentrated in communi- ties with strong pre-existing collective institutions, highlighting a more nuanced reality than is often assumed in the policy literature.}

• Types of Corruption and Public Support for Corrupt Politicians: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines with Dean Dulay and Janica Magat Working Paper

  _{Abstract: Political corruption diminishes democratic accountability and leads to economic inefficiencies, yet voters all over the world vote for corrupt politicians. What explains this phenomenon? This letter argues that corruption takes different forms and, in turn, has different effects on public support. We conduct a survey experiment on voters in the Philippines to examine how type of corruption affects their support for politicians. The results display a corruption ordering. Relative to no corruption, respondents who received the nepotism treatment are 21.6 percentage points less likely to vote for the mayor, respondents receiving the bribery treatment 35 p.p. less likely, and those receiving the theft treatment 50 p.p. less likely. These results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications and are consistent with theories of social distance and different norms and values as potential explanations. Our results suggest that type of corruption is a key determinant of corrupt politicians’ electoral success.}

• Tracking Civic Space in Developing Countries with a High-Quality Corpus of Domestic Media and Transformer Models with Donald Moratz, Jeremy Springman, Erik Wibbels, Serkant Adiguzel, Zung-Ru Lin, Diego Romero, Mahda Soltani, Hanling Su, and Jitender Swami . [Link to Working Paper]

  _{Abstract: Tracking Civic Space in Developing Countrieswith a High-Quality Corpus of Domestic Mediaand Transformer Models∗Donald A. Moratz†,1,2Jeremy Springman†,1,2Erik Wibbels†,1,2Serkant Adiguzel3Mateo Villamizar-Chaparro4Zung-Ru Lin1Diego Romero5Mahda Soltani6Hanling Su1Jitender Swami7August 21, 2025Civic space - the fundamental freedoms necessary for citizens to influence politics -is under constant contestation. Despite the importance of day-to-day contestation overthese rights, there is very little data allowing us to study the events and processes thatconstitute this struggle. We introduce new data that captures civic space activity across65 developing countries from 2012 to 2024. Using an original corpus of over 120 millionarticles from nearly 350 high-quality domestic media outlets and 30 international andregional outlets, we use human-supervised web scraping and open-source computationaltools to track monthly variation in media attention across 20 civic space events. Ourapproach yields three achievements: first, our corpus provides unprecedented coverageof reporting by developing country media outlets, addressing biases in other mediaevent data; second, the resulting monthly event data set covers a wide range of newcivic space activities; and third, we demonstrate the utility of this data for identifyingand forecasting major political events and discuss applications for research on regimedynamics during a time of democratic backsliding.}

• Beyond Goods for Votes: The Multi-Dimensional Nature of Clientelistic Offers in Guatemala

  _{Abstract: How do the characteristics of clientelistic handouts shape voter preferences, and how do these preferences operate in low-institutionalization political environments? Existing research often conceptualizes vote-buying as a simple exchange of goods for electoral support. This paper argues instead that clientelistic offers are multi-dimensional and that voters respond not merely to the presence of material benefits, but to the specific attributes embedded in them. These include the type of good provided, its monetary value, the timing of delivery, and the nature of the relationship between politicians and voters. To assess how these dimensions structure preferences, I field an original conjoint experiment in Guatemala, a setting characterized by weak party institutionalization and pervasive clientelistic practices. Respondents chose between pairs of electoral offers that varied systematically across these four attributes. By disaggregating the components of clientelistic exchanges, the paper moves beyond simplified goods-for-votes models and provides a more precise account of how voters evaluate clientelistic offers in weakly institutionalized democracies.}

• Precarity, and Preferences for Redistribution in Weak States: Evidence from the Philippines with Dean Dulay and Janica Magat [Pre-analysis plan]

  _{Abstract: The positive relationship between economic precarity and increased preferences for redistribution is well-established in a large literature focusing on the Global North. However, existing scholarship finds no relationship between precarity and redistribution in the Global South; the underlying reasons remain unclear. Moreover, existing papers conflate precarity and informality, thus confounding the interpretation of these results. We conducted a priming experiment and leveraged the COVID-19 pandemic to randomly vary perceptions of economic precarity for 1,526 individuals in Metro Manila, Philippines. We show that precarity is not correlated with increased demand for redistribution, but is correlated with a preference for non-contributory social assistance spending over contributory social insurance spending. This result is driven by the formal sector, suggesting that precarity does engender different views about redistribution among individuals with exposure to different social spending policies.}

• The Supply Side of Exclusionary Rhetoric: The political use of xenophobic rhetoric during elections in Colombia

  _{Abstract: The increase in international migration in developing countries has led to a rise in xenophobic and anti-immigrant attitudes across the public. Do local politicians respond to these demands and use xenophobic rhetoric for electoral gain? This paper investigates the conditions under which politicians strategically employ xenophobic rhetoric during campaigns for local elections. Using Twitter data from mayoral candidates in Colombia’s largest cities in assistance with a dictionary, I find that the use of xenophobic rhetoric is low, despite increasing the virality of the tweets. Estimates from a regression discontinuity also show that xenophobic rhetoric does not increase the chances of winning. There is some suggestive evidence that in places with more labor competition between migrants and natives, politicians use more xenophobic slurs.}

• Beyond Clientelism? Progressive Politics, Party System Change, and Ethnic Group Linkages in Latin America

  _{Abstract: After the 1980s, Latin America experienced a second inclusionary turn characterized by increased recognition of previously marginalized societal actors, including ethnic minorities. While existing scholarship has examined where and how inclusion occurs, two critical questions remain underexplored: which parties incorporate newly recognized ethnic groups into their electoral coalitions, and what types of partisan linkages—clientelistic or programmatic—do parties employ when engaging these constituencies? This paper outlines a research design to address these questions using expert survey data from the 2024 wave of the Democratic Accountability and Linkages Project (DALP), supplemented by the Chapel Hill Expert Survey for Latin America (CHES-LA). I argue that party organizational characteristics, ideological positioning, experiential factors, and resource access shape both incorporation decisions and linkage strategies. Using country-fixed effects models of Latin American parties, I test hypotheses about the effects of party organization, centralization, incumbency, ideology, tolerance, and financing structures on inclusion and linkage type. This research contributes to understanding how parties adapt their electoral strategies during inclusionary periods and whether incorporation transforms clientelistic practices into programmatic representation.}

• New Interests, New Measures, Old Problems: An Analysis of the Latent Dimension(s) of Democracy with Serkant Adiguzel, Scott de Marchi, Jeremy Springman and Erik Wibbels. Working Paper

Work in Progress

• Elections and Democratic Backsliding with Erik Wibbels
• Dual Citizenship, Political Participation and Exile in the Southern Cone
• Televised Inequality: The Impact of Avenida Brasil on Perceptions of Inequality with Yuhan Zheng
• Intra-Party Competition in Uruguay with Inés Fynn, Rafael Piñeiro, and Rosario Queirolo

Policy Working papers

• Elections as Windows of Opportunity? Civic Space in Democratic and Backsliding Regimes with Erik Wibbels. ML4P Report

  _{Abstract: Elections are events where democratic ideals are forged into tangible political outcomes. They’re the source of a government’s right to lead and the key factor in balancing power among different groups in society. However, these pivotal events can also present opportunities for aspiring autocrats. Such leaders may exploit elections to restrict civic space, weaken opposition forces, or further consolidate power. This concern is particularly relevant because most democratic backsliding is initiated by aspiring autocrats who come to power via elections, sometimes via narrow electoral victories.[1][5] Using high-frequency data from the Machine Learning for Peace (MLP) project, we provide unique evidence on the extent to which backsliding regimes differ from their liberal democratic counterparts in their treatment of civic space around elections}

• Extortion and Civic Engagement among Guatemalan Deportees with Elaine K. Denny, David A. Dow and Gabriella Levy. World Bank Working Paper 10020

  _{Abstract: How does extortion experienced during the migration journey affect the civic engagement of deported migrants returned to their home country? More broadly, how does extortion affect political participation? We know very little about either the political behavior of returnees or about how coercive economic shocks experienced during migration affect subsequent levels of political participation. Furthermore, existing literature on how victimization affects political participation is inconclusive, particularly when combined with existing work on economic insecurity. Studying deported migrants and the quasi-random experience of extortion enables us to address the endogeneity that often confounds these analyses. This approach allows us to isolate the impact of extortion on political action from potentially confounding factors related to local security or corruption. Using a novel dataset from Guatemalan migrants returned to Guatemala by the U.S. government, we find that extortion has a direct, positive relationship with multiple forms of civic action, and that, at least in this context, the mobilizing effects of economic hardship outweigh the potentially demobilizing effects of fear of crime.}

• Why Student Aid Matters? Roadblocks to the Transition into Higher Education for Forced Migrants in Chile with Christian Blanco and Francisco Meneses. World Bank Working Paper 10104

  _{Abstract: Education is a powerful tool for social mobility and cultural integration. However, it is one of the largest hurdles for migrants—particularly for forcefully displaced migrants, given their more vulnerable condition and lack of resources to pay for private education. This paper explores educational gaps between migrants and natives in Chile, a country that provides free public education to newcomers. The paper analyzes an administrative data set that includes all students in the Chilean educational system and follows students from 2017 to 2018. Using a research discontinuity design around the cut-off for financial aid to tertiary education, this paper investigates whether access to financial aid generates incentives for forced migrants to enroll in tertiary education. This research confirms previous findings that show that migrants have lower advancement and enrollment rates than natives at every school level. Moreover, it f inds that financial aid applications constitute a major roadblock preventing migrant students from accessing higher education. Furthermore, the paper presents suggestive evidence showing that the interaction between the type of school (vocational vs. technical) and the migrant condition affects applications for financial aid.}

• The Human Cost of Deportation with Elaine K. Denny, David A. Dow, Diego Romero, Gabriella Levy, Juan F. Tellez, Weyne Pitts, Erik Wibbels, and Pamela Zabala.. Actualidad Política #19
  • Covering in Brookings, Plaza P'ublica, and Plaza P'ublica

Publications in other media

• Villamizar-Chaparro, Mateo (2025) El ADN migratorio de Uruguay (Blog: Razones y Personas)
• Villamizar-Chaparro, Mateo and Saavedra, Melissa (2024) Ni fu ni fa: xenofobia, integracionismo, y la pugna por alcaldías y gobernaciones en 2023 (Informe del Barómetro de la Xenofobia)
• Echeverri-Pineda, Cristina and Villamizar-Chaparro (2023, Jan. 1) District Selection and Racial Identity: Voting Preferences in the Colombian Congress’ Black District. (Items)
• Levy, Tellez and Villamizar-Chaparro (2021, Dec. 1) Five years after Colombia’s peace deal, the FARC is no longer on U.S. terrorist group lists. (The Monkey Cage)
• Denny, Dow, Ordoñez, Pitts, Romero, Tellez, Villamizar-Chaparro, Wibbels, and Zabala (2021, April 2) 4 things the Biden administration should pay attention to with the border crisis (Brookings: Future Development Blog)
• Lebow, Villamizar-Chaparro and Wibbels (2021, Mar. 26) New survey highlights the unique challenges that Guatemalan deportees face with economic integration back home. (Vox LACEA)
• Dow, Tellez, Villamizar-Chaparro and Wibbels (2021, Mar. 3) Biden wants to halt deportations. Here’s what happens when migrants are sent back. (The Monkey Cage)
• Villamizar-Chaparro, M (2018) Editorial: Afro-Colombian Representation. (Boletín 12 Antioquia Visible)
• Villamizar-Chaparro, M (2017, Nov 15) Rushing for Peace: The Fast-Track Mechanism in Colombia.(JIPS Blog)
• Villamizar-Chaparro, M (2017, Sep 8) Conducting Fieldwork in Colombia’s Squatters. (JIPS Blog)
• Villamizar-Chaparro, M. (2017, May 24) The Borders of Public Policy. (JIPS Blog)
• Villamizar-Chaparro, M. (2015, June 5). Dilemas del autogobierno afro: El caso Palenque. (Cerosetenta)
• Villamizar-Chaparro, M., Duque, C., & Martínez, P. (2014, Sep 12). ¿Jaque a la Circunscripción Afro? (Congreso Visible)
• Aroca, María Paula & Villamizar-Chaparro, M. (2014, June 26). ¿La Paradoja del Mira? (Congreso Visible)
• Villamizar-Chaparro, M. (2014, Mar 21). Y ¿Qué pasó con las circunscripciones especiales? (Congreso Visible)